International Journal of Applied Research
Vol. 2, Issue 3, Part G (2016)
Projections of rainfall and surface temperature over Nabarangpur district using multiple CMIP5 models in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios
Sagnika Majhi, KC Pattnayak, Rashmita Pattnaya
In India, district level climate change information is still a challenging task for the meteorologist. Thus an attempt has been made to project the temporal variations of rainfall and surface temperature over Nabarangpur district using fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the twenty first century. For this purpose, six CMIP5 models have been chosen. The study period has been considered from 1901 to 2100. From this period, initial 105 years i.e. 1901 to 2005 is historical period and 2006 to 2100 is future period. The climatological annual mean rainfall and surface temperature has been obtained from the CRU observations over the period 1901 to 2012. The rate of increase or decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over the district. The rainfall in the summer monsoon months may increase in future periods and it might be even higher in the RCP8.5 scenarios towards the end of the 21st century. The surface temperature in all the months might get increases in both the scenarios but it will be higher in the RCP8.5 than that in the RCP4.5. Thus our model projections indicate that the coming years may be hotter and wetter than the present years.
How to cite this article:
Sagnika Majhi, KC Pattnayak, Rashmita Pattnaya. Projections of rainfall and surface temperature over Nabarangpur district using multiple CMIP5 models in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Int J Appl Res 2016;2(3):399-405.